Quick reference for the eight news releases that move forex the most. What each measures, when it drops, and the typical currency reaction — so the calendar stops being a mystery.
NFP🔴 High impact
⏱ Monthly · 1st Friday · 12:30 UTC
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
What it measures
Net new US jobs created last month, excluding farming. The single biggest US labour market indicator.
Typical currency effect
Stronger NFP usually lifts USD (hawkish Fed expectations); weaker NFP weighs on USD. EUR/USD and gold move the most.
CPI🔴 High impact
⏱ Monthly · ~middle of month
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
What it measures
Year-over-year change in consumer prices — the headline inflation reading.
Typical currency effect
Higher CPI = central bank may hike rates = currency strengthens. Below-expectation prints weaken the currency.
Rates🔴 High impact
⏱ ~8 times per year per central bank
Interest Rate Decision
What it measures
Central bank sets its policy interest rate; the press release and forward guidance often matter more than the number itself.
Typical currency effect
Hike or hawkish tone strengthens the currency; cut or dovish tone weakens it. Largest single move of any release.
GDP🔴 High impact
⏱ Quarterly · advance / preliminary / final
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
What it measures
Annualised growth rate of the economy. The advance read moves markets most; revisions usually do little.
Typical currency effect
Stronger GDP supports the currency by raising rate-hike expectations; weak GDP raises rate-cut bets and weakens it.
FOMC🔴 High impact
⏱ ~8 times per year (US Federal Reserve)
FOMC Statement & Press Conference
What it measures
The Fed's policy statement, dot plot (when applicable), and Powell's press conference — guidance about future rates.
Typical currency effect
Hawkish surprises lift USD across the board; dovish surprises hit USD hard. The press conference can outweigh the statement itself.
PMI🟠 Medium impact
⏱ Monthly · ~1st business day
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
What it measures
Survey of purchasing managers — readings above 50 mean expansion, below 50 mean contraction.
Typical currency effect
Above 50 and rising is bullish for the currency; sub-50 prints can trigger rate-cut speculation and weakness.
Retail🟠 Medium impact
⏱ Monthly · ~mid-month
Retail Sales
What it measures
Month-on-month change in consumer spending at retailers — proxy for household demand.
Typical currency effect
Strong retail sales lift the currency by suggesting healthy demand and possible rate hikes. Weakness weighs on it.
Unemp.🟠 Medium impact
⏱ Monthly · with NFP
Unemployment Rate
What it measures
Share of the labour force without a job. Often released alongside NFP.
Typical currency effect
Lower unemployment strengthens the currency by supporting rate-hike narratives; higher unemployment weakens it.
💡 Trading the news: Reaction depends on the print versus expectations, not the print alone. Beating expectations is usually bullish for the currency; missing them is bearish. Liquidity is thin in the first seconds after release — spreads widen and stops slip.
⏳ Educational reference — actual reaction varies with positioning, surprise size, and broader macro context.
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